What does the future hold for Rugby?

What countries will step up to tier 1 from tier 2? Will the popularity of rugby ever be equal with Association Football? Will New Zealand always be the top Rugby team in the World despite their results of their campaigns at The Rugby World Cup?What does the future hold for Rugby?
"What countries will step up to tier 1 from tier 2?"

Japan -- they have the resources, without the competition from gridiron that Canada and the US suffer from. They also (now) have a fully professional domestic competition. After Japan the odds are pretty long against any other nation, but Russia, Georgia and Spain have the best chance.

"Will the popularity of rugby ever be equal with Association Football?"

No. You can't beat the simplicity of a ball and an open space being your only needs. And not everyone enjoys playing or watching the violence which comes with a full contact sport.

"Will New Zealand always be the top Rugby team in the World despite their results of their campaigns at The Rugby World Cup?"

Of course not. No one is always on top. New Zealand is certainly the strongest at the momemnt with the best development system, but they will continue to trade places with at least the 'boks and Wallabies for the forseeable future. That's just life.
1 - It will be very hard for many countries to crack the top tier. They may get there, but whether they could beat the likes of New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, France, England and Ireland with any sort of regularity is unlikely. Countries that have the money to invest (China, Russia, the USA and Japan) may get there, but aside from money, they'll be competing with nations that have over a century of rugby culture, where rugby is played from as young as 5 - 6 years old in some cases. They have high schools (14 - 18 year old age groups) where the first-team rugby team are like gods. Then you have university teams, then professional provincial/state unions that start scouting universities. The systems, structures and traditions in place in the top nations will always beat money.



South Africa is a great example. We have high school tournaments starting at the under-14 level where well-funded provincial rugby unions already start looking for talent. Then the top players from the high school competitions go on to what is known as the Craven Week, where the best of the best represent their province at young ages already. At the same time, big rugby playing universities are also watching and they may go into a partnership with a rugby union and offer these kids bursaries to study at their university and play rugby, so by the time you get into university, a professional rugby union is already grooming you and you are being exposed to high levels of training.



And while still in university you can start playing Vodacom Cup rugby, the second level of national rugby in the country. If you are really good, by the age of 18 you can sign a pro contract and start playing at South Africa's top tier of domestic rugby, the Currie Cup. And if you truly are talented, by 18 or 19 you can play Super Rugby (arguably the world's premier franchise -based tournament) and be selected to represent the Springboks, South Africa's national team. It will be a long way for tier 2/tier 3 nations to match this.



2 - No. Rugby will never match soccer. Rugby simply cannot draw the kind of money and revenues that football can. England %26amp; France are the only two that have thriving domestic rugby and football leagues, but the rugby leagues are way behind in the revenue stakes. Rugby also lacks the pizazz of football as rugby players are not ego-driven pretty boys. Well, very, very few are. Rugby players don't generally appeal to the media in the way a Cristiano Ronaldo, David Beckam, Lionel Messi, Kaka does.



3 - Well, it pains me to say this, but New Zealand will always be the benchmark team. They have been the team to beat for over a century already and that won't change, regardless of poor performances at World Cups. South Africa and Australia are more than capable of beating them, but the All Blacks will always be the barometer.What does the future hold for Rugby?
To be honest, the future of rugby is getting ever worse.



Japan are surprising close to becoming a tier one team, go on the irb rankings and they ain't far off the big guns. Well, Italy and Samoa maybe.



Rugby will never be as popular as football. I am an edinburgh season ticket holder, and in a magners league match they struggle to get 2,000 to a match. They are arguably the best team in scotland aswell. As good as the super 15 and french 14 are, they are limited to viewing in 4 countries which are already world dominators.



And for the last question, no. It's most likely to be a team you dont expect within the next 30 odd years
What countries will step up to tier 1 from tier 2?



Samoa showed last weekend that they are ready to become a force.

I know Argentina are probably already considered tier 1, but they join the toughest rugby comp in the world next year (the trinations) this will only make them better.

Japan are looking good going forward and seem to have a lot of support, both financial and emotional in their country



Will the popularity of rugby ever be equal with Association Football?

probably not, rugby is a lot more complicated and less approachable than soccer.

Mums who worry about their kids getting hurt would much rather they play soccer.



Will New Zealand always be the top Rugby team in the World despite their results of their campaigns at The Rugby World Cup?



I'd like to think so, but no team can be the best forever. Rugby will always be our national game, and we will always be passionate about it, win or lose.What does the future hold for Rugby?
Good question. Rugby union will never equal Association football ( soccer ) because that code is played world -wide on every continent. The money generated in soccer plus its history and culture is something rugby union cannot compete with.

Perhaps sevens rugby might be the only form of rugby that could generate interest in soccer mad countries. With a emphasis on running and tackling without too much physicality it could appeal to some soccer people.

As to the ABs being the top rugby nation. It is NZs national sport similarly in SA so its not surprising these two countries have had more success than everyone else with Aust not far behind.

But as you point out, the ABs seem to falter at RWCs for various reasons which makes these tournaments more interesting for other teams competing ( I'm still backing the ABs for this years RWC)
Rugby in China is gradually getting bigger....very gradually. But if a sport gets big in China it gets very BIG